Dearborn’s 2024 general election didn’t just shuffle winners — it upended assumptions.
A Republican plurality at the top of the ticket, a historic Green Party surge, and steady Democratic strength down-ballot painted the picture of a city in political transition. But one thing didn’t change enough: voter turnout.
📊 What the Numbers Say — and Why They Matter
Dearborn’s official election summary offers a complicated story. At the presidential level:
- Donald Trump (R): 42.48%
- Kamala Harris (D): 36.26%
- Jill Stein (G): 18.37%
The city recorded 42,923 ballots cast out of 78,438 registered voters — a turnout rate of 54.72%. (These are unofficial city totals reported after Election Day.)
Down-ballot results showed a more fractured picture:
- U.S. Senate: Elissa Slotkin (D) edged out Mike Rogers (R) 41.42% to 38.86%, with Douglas P. Marsh (G) pulling 14.87% — another striking non-major-party share.
- U.S. House (MI-12): Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D) won comfortably with 62.11%.
Even straight-ticket voting stood out:
- Republican: 41.89%
- Democratic: 40.43%
- Green: 15.45% — unusually high for a city Dearborn’s size.
Local public radio summed it up: Trump ~42%, Stein ~18%, Harris ~36% — results that diverged sharply from standard expectations and drew national attention.
(Sources: dearborn.gov, WDET 101.9 FM)
✂ The Split-Ballot Moment
The data shows voters using their ballots surgically:
- At the top, a sizable bloc broke from Democrats — splitting between Republicans and Greens.
- Down-ballot, many of those same voters supported familiar Democratic incumbents, such as Rep. Tlaib.
This wasn’t a full party flip — it was an issue-driven realignment, a “punish nationally, trust locally” approach to Democratic candidates.
📉 Turnout: Good — But Not Good Enough
Dearborn’s 54.72% turnout among registered voters looks middling compared to Michigan’s overall performance.
Statewide, Michigan ranked #3 in the nation for voter turnout in 2024, with 74.6% of eligible voters participating. The Michigan Department of State’s Access Matters report credits early voting and vote-by-mail for boosting participation.
The contrast is telling: while Michigan surged, Dearborn left votes on the table. In a city experiencing such dramatic party fluidity, the voices of non-voters loom even larger.
⚙ What’s Powering the Shift?
1. Foreign Policy Backlash
In 2024, Arab and Muslim voters — including many in Dearborn — expressed frustration with national Democrats over Gaza policy. The “uncommitted” primary movement helped normalize non-major-party choices in the general election. (WDET 101.9 FM)
2. Campaign Touchpoints
Late-cycle visits mattered symbolically. Trump’s stop in Dearborn — controversial and widely covered — underscored both parties’ recognition of the city’s leverage. (CBS News)
3. Local vs. National Trust
Voters backed trusted Democrats locally while breaking away at the top of the ticket — a hallmark of the city’s split-ballot trend. (dearborn.gov)
🔮 What the Turnout Gap Means for 2026 (and Beyond)
A truly three-block electorate (Republican / Democrat / Green) at the top of the ballot makes turnout strategy more complex — and more urgent.
- 🎯 Precinct-Level Targeting: Focus on precincts with the largest registration-to-vote gaps. Use multilingual voter education and reminders during early voting windows. (Access Matters report)
- 🗳 Normalize Alternative Choices: Educate voters on ballot mechanics, minor-party lines, and split tickets to reduce the “wasted vote” fear.
- 📢 Inclusive Civic Forums: Break the habit of two-party-only events to match the electorate’s evolving reality.
📌 Bottom Line
Dearborn’s 2024 results weren’t a simple partisan “flip” — they were a re-sorting.
Voters experimented at the top, stayed loyal locally, and proved that issues — especially foreign policy — can override long-standing loyalties. The challenge ahead: closing the turnout gap so that Dearborn’s shifting political map is fully represented in future cycles.
Sources:
- City of Dearborn — Election Summary Report (Unofficial, Nov. 5, 2024): dearborn.gov
- WDET coverage (Nov. 6 & 13, 2024) on Dearborn’s results & Stein share.
- Michigan Department of State — Access Matters: Michigan #3 in Voter Turnout (2024).
- CBS Detroit on Trump’s Dearborn visit.
Dearborn Blog 