The Green Surge in Dearborn: How 2024 Broke the Two-Party Script

Excerpt: It wasn’t a blip. Dearborn delivered one of the nation’s most visible Green breakthroughs in 2024: 18% for Jill Stein at the top of the ticket, 15% straight-ticket Green, and robust showings down-ballot. Here’s what changed—and what could make it stick.

The Headline Numbers

In Dearborn’s presidential tally, Jill Stein (Green) recorded 7,697 votes (18.37%)—one of her strongest city percentages anywhere in the country. Trump led with 42.48% and Harris took 36.26%. dearborn.gov

That wasn’t an isolated spike. On the straight-ticket line, Green scored 15.45% (3,576 of 23,148 straight-ticket ballots)—an extraordinary figure for a non-major party in a mid-sized city. dearborn.gov

Down-ballot Green candidates also overperformed:

• U.S. Senate (Douglas P. Marsh, Green): 14.87% in Dearborn. dearborn.gov
• Wayne State University Governor (Sami Makhloul, Green): 10.72% in Dearborn. dearborn.gov
• Michigan State University Trustee (John Anthony La Pietra, Green): 7.67% in Dearborn. dearborn.gov

Local media framed Dearborn as a standout: Trump ~42%, Stein ~18%, Harris ~36—figures consistent with the city’s own unofficial results. WDET 101.9 FM+1

What Moved Voters?

1) A Clear Signal from Community Leadership Circles

The American Arab & Muslim Political Action Committee (AMPAC) formally endorsed Jill Stein in October, a visible cue that alternative voting was on the table for a community long associated with Democratic loyalty. AMPACStein / Ware 2024

2) A Protest Channel With an Actual Candidate

The “uncommitted” movement in the primary gave way to a general-election outlet—Green—capable of translating anger over U.S. policy on Gaza into votes rather than abstentions. WDET’s coverage noted Dearborn posted Stein’s highest Michigan city share. WDET 101.9 FM

3) A Safe Form of Risk-Taking

The split-ballot pattern is crucial: voters could sanction national Democrats at the top while keeping trusted local Democrats (e.g., Rep. Rashida Tlaib) in office. That combination makes a third-party vote feel less “risky” to first-time defectors. dearborn.gov

Is This Realignment—or a High-Water Mark?

A third-party surge survives only if two conditions hold:

• Infrastructure: consistent visibility, candidate recruitment, ballot access, and basic field operations between cycles;
• Issue Ownership: the party must “own” a set of issues local voters care about (Gaza policy was catalyzing in 2024; housing, water quality, and local economic fairness often matter just as much in municipal politics).

Dearborn’s data hints at both opportunity and fragility. The Green share topped 10% in multiple down-ballot races, suggesting breadth—not just a single personality at the top. But without sustained presence (forums, service projects, school-board engagement, precinct captains), 18% can fall back toward single digits by the next presidential year.

What Would Consolidation Look Like?

1. Consistent Candidate Bench: Don’t disappear between cycles. City and school races build trust and name recognition that carry into state and federal contests.
2. Policy Depth: Translate national critique (e.g., foreign policy) into local credibility: environmental justice (air quality along industrial corridors), transparent public works, housing preservation, small-business incubation.
3. Coalition vs. Isolation: Many defectors remain culturally tied to existing Democratic officeholders they respect. Greens who collaborate—on hearings, constituent services, and neighborhood fixes—will win second looks.

What the Major Parties Might Do In Response

• Democrats: Address the policy rupture directly (foreign policy, civil liberties) and engage the same neighborhoods with tangible local wins. Symbolic outreach alone won’t reverse a pattern that now has data behind it.
• Republicans: A 42% presidential share shows real purchase—but the city’s down-ballot results caution against overreading it. Build issue-specific bridges (e.g., small-business regulation, city services) without alienating voters on civil rights or immigration.

The Metric to Watch

In 2026 and 2028, track the Green straight-ticket share and non-top-of-ticket Green percentages. If straight-ticket remains above ~10% and secondary races hold in double digits, the Green vote has moved from “protest” to structure. Dearborn’s 2024 baseline—15.45% straight-ticket Green—is a very high bar. dearborn.gov

Resources

• City of Dearborn — Election Summary Report (Unofficial, Nov. 5, 2024): presidential, straight-ticket, Senate, WSU Governor, MSU Trustee totals. dearborn.gov+2dearborn.gov+2
• WDET reporting on Dearborn’s post-election breakdown and Stein’s share. WDET 101.9 FM+1
• AMPAC endorsement announcements (Oct. 2024). AMPACStein / Ware 2024